50-50 ball:19.02 reasons why Hearts will beat Hibs on Saturday
The Big Day is almost upon us. The Old Firm have been well and truly side-lined, like that psycho girlfriend you really should have binned ages ago. Ridiculously enormous flags are being folded up with the utmost care, while kids across Edinburgh are driving their parents insane with incessant demands for maroon or green face paint. Finishing touches are being put to cheesy cup final playlists all over the land. Fans in families with split loyalties, of which there are many in Auld Reekie, have worked out their contingency plans for the evening, should their wife’s / dad’s / daughter’s / brother’s team actually do the unthinkable and win. Said contingency plans generally involve slinking off to bed with a bottle of Talisker for company.
Journalists have their Rudyard Kipling ‘meet with triumph and disaster’ and Theodore Roosevelt ‘grey twilight that knows not victory or defeat’ quotes scribbled down for their upcoming faux-live match reports. STV will do one more repetitive piece on James, the Jambo from Jamaica, and Hugo, the Hibbie from Honduras, who’ve both flown 150,000,000 km to make the final, although neither of them have a ticket yet (Ach…I’m just jealous, really). Reporting Scotland will respond by interviewing the great-nephew of the 1896 final referee, and demand to know if there was a valid penalty claim in the 87th minute. Or something.
All that will be forgotten come 3 pm on Saturday, when the two teams that represent the greatest city on Earth take to the Hampden Park pitch to contest debatably the most important Edinburgh derby in the history of the fixture. The Hearts fans will sing of stories and songs, while Hibs supporters will respond with a ditty about glory, and then more glory. At one point in the afternoon the hashtag #scottishcupfinal will no doubt make a fleeting appearance in Twitter’s worldwide trending topics.
Enough poorly thought-out intro stuff. After a careful, unbiased analysis of all the key factors, here are the reasons why Marius Zaliukas, rather than Ian Murray (if he can get a game) or James McPake, will be holding the grand auld trophy aloft come 5 o’clock:
1) Hearts finished 5th in the SPL, in what was a bit of a mediocre league campaign by their high standards. Hibs scraped 11th (i.e. 2nd bottom), and needed a win over a truly awful Dunfermline side – an outfit that wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Papua New Guinea Premier Division this season – in their penultimate fixture to ensure that they avoided the dreaded drop. The Jam Tarts scored more and conceded fewer goals than their weekend opponents. To put it bluntly, Hearts are the better football team.
2) As any non-Martian knows, the all-conquering Hibees haven’t won Scotland’s premier domestic knockout competition since 1902. Hearts have lifted the oldest cup in world football four times in that intervening period. Any way you look at it, the pressure is all on the Easter Road side.
3) Heart of Midlothian’s castle rock-like defence contains established internationals such as Andy Webster and Marius Zaliukas. Hibs’ back four features loan signings from Wolverhampton Wanderers and Coventry City.
4) Hearts emerged victorious from all three Edinburgh derbies this season, and are unbeaten in the last ten meetings between the clubs. Ah, facts – annoying wee buggers, eh?
5) A cursory glance through the squads shows an embarrassing disparity in quality in almost every department. The defence has already been covered (please pay attention), but elsewhere on the pitch, Hearts simply appear to have the more effective players. Hibernian fans will point to their strikeforce as the one area where they have the edge, but Gary O’Connor and Leigh Griffiths are such flickering shadows of their former selves that Craig Beattie also gets the nod from our expert panel, which doesn’t really exist. Even Jamie MacDonald, Hearts’ unfairly maligned goalkeeper, is a sizeable step above his opposite number, who has spent the last 45 seasons warming the bench in the SPL. Whisper it, and this won’t go down well in Leith, where there’s a general belief that they taught Barcelona all they know, but Hibs look a bit, well, humpty.
6) A comparison of the respective managers’ pre-match quotes is revealing.
Pat Fenlon (Hibs): “Yes, I think there’s a bit of fear there. They feel they have the hex over us but I also think there’s a little doubt in some of their heads as well. I think there’s a bigger fear for them than there is for us.”
Paulo Sergio (Hearts): “I hope and I believe that at 5pm it’s going to be a tremendous day. Before that, it’s just a normal day. If I say that it’s different then maybe I’ve not been such a good professional as I have been in the games before. If you believe that losing puts the pressure on the team that wins all the time, okay. Keep losing.”
If that doesn’t make you want to stick the mortgage on the boys in maroon tomorrow, nothing will.
7) Hibs fans have been peddling all manner of superstitious nonsense in the run-up to the big game. Their on-line forums have been rife with tenuous theories. 1 + 9 + 0 + 2 = 12, apparently. One poster’s Hibs-supporting relative, long since passed away, had predicted in writing that the ‘Cabbage and Ribs’ (Really? Does anyone really say that?) would next lift the cup in 2012. And those are just the two most sensible examples. I’d never indulge in such tomfoolery (oh, go on, then: see point 0.2*), except to mention that the wife, kids and I very recently spent a relaxing week sunning ourselves on the South Carolina coast. As we exited the lift on the 19th floor, I was amused to discover the number of the room we’d been allocated:
Oh, and the view was great, and the wee ones had a cracking time at the beach – cheers for asking.
8) The Edinburgh derby, rightly described by shameless media whore Graham Spiers as ‘a jewel of the Scottish game’, is traditionally one of the most one-sided contests in European top-flight football. To my knowledge, only Spanish outfit Espanyol have a poorer statistical record in derbies, but we’ll let them off, because their ‘eternal rivals’ just happen to be the best team on planet Earth. Even Manchester City, who up until recently were the Bobby Kennedy of Mancunian football, have won 28% of derby clashes, compared to Hibs’ 27%.
9) The twelfth man factor, anyone? Football fans are a fickle lot at the best of times. And the effect of supporters’ primal screams and non-stop chanting is no doubt exaggerated by the media. That said, any Hearts supporter who was at the Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid and Slavia Prague games at Tynecastle, the Braga game at Murrayfield, the away games in Vienna, Bordeaux and Braga, the Rangers final at Celtic park in 1998, the Gretna final at Hampden in 2006 and the Champions League decider against Aberdeen at Tynecastle that same year, would find it difficult to deny that the crowd did indeed play a part – a small part, perhaps, but a part nevertheless – in propelling their heroes to victory. Can Hibs say the same? When was the last time that, their drubbing of the worst Dunfermline side to ‘grace’ the SPL in years aside, they actually won a game that mattered?
10) The media attention has been largely focused on Hibs and their attempts to improve on their abysmal Scottish Cup record. As any England or Scotland manager will tell you, this type of pre-tournament hype almost always transforms into a slurpy smacker of death. And while Hibs are unlikely to be getting pumped by Sweden, France and Ukraine any time soon, they will undoubtedly find themselves on the wrong end of a doing on Saturday.
11) Hibs’ manager, the ever-so-slightly glaikit Pat Fenlon, bears more than a passing resemblance to Martin O’Neil chewing on a scorpion. Or new French President François Hollande upon discovering the fine mess Nicolas Sarkozy had left behind for him.
Suave Hearts supremo Paulo Sergio, meanwhile, is more than likely the son of the ‘most interesting man in the world’ from the Dos Equis ads, which either makes him the newly-appointed most interesting man in the world, or the second most interesting man in the world, depending on how you view hereditary genetics. Which one is going to deliver the more inspiring team talk, I ask you?
12) Midfield will be a key battleground during the match, and Hearts appear to have more experienced, exciting and efficient players in this area of the pitch. Rudi Skacel is an explosive match-winner, a veritable cometh-the-hour Human Torch who has a habit of pinging in spectacular goals with his dependable left boot at crucial moments. Ian Black, a dynamic tough tackler with a Bruce Banner complex (Just don’t make him angry), has also had an excellent campaign. Spanish winger Suso adds un certain je ne sais quoi, or un no sé qué, to be linguistically accurate/anal (delete as appropriate).
On the opposite side of the pitch, Tom Soares, Jorge Claros and Co. look rather lightweight in comparison. Neither are bad players (and to be fair, Claros has faced more high-pressure situations than a Scottish Cup final), but they’ll need to have had their Weetabix to compete effectively.
13) Hibernian’s line-up contains Pa Kujabi, a self-styled Roberto Carlos, who rather inexplicably has racked up ten caps for Gambia. My American wife (zero caps for the Stars and Stripes) is better than Kujabi.
14) A few years back, I was distracted by a member of the opposite sex and walked right into a pillar outside the Royal Commonwealth Pool, almost knocking myself out in the process. Certain statistics give you the same kind of unexpected thwack in the chops. Since winning the Scottish Cup in 1902, Hibs have lost thirteen finals, Scottish FA and League Cups combined.
15) Sometimes you just have to step back and look at whether or not a team deserves to win. While this has not been a vintage season for Hearts, they’ve played good football at times, beating the now-defunct Rangers, Celtic (twice; once in the league and once in the cup) and Champions League-bound Motherwell. Hibs managed one solitary league victory over a top-six side all season (vs. St Johnstone in September).
16) Alright, so it might have been 116 years ago, but Hearts’ 3-1 skelping of Hibs in the 1896 final is the only point of reference available ahead of the weekend clash. The vast time gap doesn’t appear to have prevented the Glasgow Herald from using the result as a form guide, so who am I to argue?
17) An underdog (Kilmarnock) has already claimed the other cup on offer in Scotland this year. Those that believe in flying spaghetti monsters will state that the gods would never be that generous twice in the one season. More reasoned thinkers would simply say that logic suggests the trophy is on its way back to Tynecastle.
18) A useful if slightly unscientific method for gauging the quality of team A’s players compared to team B’s players is the good, old-fashioned Mum Test. For those wishing to try this at home, it goes like this:
“Mum, can you name me any current Hibs players?”
“Um, um, whatsisname…thingamajig…Ian Murray?”
“Mum, that doesn’t count. Your daughter went to high school with Murray.”
“Erm, well then, no, no, I can’t, son. Is there a game on tomorrow, by the way?”
19) Football is all about iconic moments. Hibs have certainly had theirs in Edinburgh derbies over the years (the oft-mentioned 7-0 game, for example), but in recent times they’ve been in scant supply. Heart of Midlothian, meanwhile, have stacked them up like a student-y beer bottle pyramid display over the past couple of decades, with Wayne Foster, Mark de Vries, Graham Weir, Phil Stamp and Paul Hartley all taking pride of place at the top of the triumphant tower. Despite the usual blah-blah about previous matches and results not making one blind bit of difference, Paulo Sergio could do worse than remind his charges of some of those moments at 2.55 tomorrow afternoon.
0.2*) Hector Nicol knew the score. Music’s equivalent of a mercenary journeyman (the St Mirren supporter wrote talismanic tunes for Hibs, Hearts, Dundee and Dundee United) took a leaf out of a bad Dan Brown novel (Is there any other kind?) and hid subliminal messages in the clubs’ respective songs. The ever-handy Word Count button in MS Word reveals there to be 1902 characters in the Hibs classic ‘Glory Glory to the Hibees’, choruses included. The same copy-paste job with the wonderful ‘Hearts, Hearts, Glorious Hearts’ yields a count of 2012. Ye couldnae make it up.
A much-quoted line from Nicol’s Hearts-themed song is ‘the talk of the toon are the boys in maroon.’ By this time on Saturday evening, that statement at least should play out in reality.